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No Renewables? Higher Bills, Weaker Grid, and Greater Risk — New CEIG Report Reveals the Real Cost of Fossil Fuels
What would Australia’s energy system look like without renewables?
That’s the question explored in a powerful new report by the Clean Energy Investor Group (CEIG)—and the answer is clear: we’d all be paying more while facing a less reliable and more vulnerable power grid.
CEIG’s modelling, based on a 2024 “what if” scenario where solar, wind and battery storage were removed from the grid, reveals some eye-opening outcomes. It’s not just a thought experiment, it’s a wake-up call for policymakers, energy consumers, and businesses alike.
💸 Key Finding #1: Without Renewables, Electricity Prices Soar
The report shows that without renewables and battery storage assets, wholesale electricity prices in 2024 would have been $30–$80 per megawatt hour (MWh) higher. That translates to up to a 22% increase in household electricity bills, or up to $417 more per year per household.
Why? Because renewables like wind and solar supply large volumes of low-cost energy. When these are removed, the gap has to be filled by more expensive sources, primarily gas and coal-fired generation.
In fact, the report found that without rooftop solar too, wholesale prices could skyrocket by $400 -$3,000/MWh, highlighting just how crucial solar panels on homes have become in keeping prices down.
🔥 Key Finding #2: We’d Be Forced to Rely on Expensive Gas
With renewables out of the mix, the majority of the generation shortfall would be filled by coal plants which is a more expensive form of electricity generation.
While gas is useful for peak demand periods, relying on it constantly drives up system costs and also puts enormous pressure on gas supply, potentially diverting gas away from other vital sectors like manufacturing and industry.
This could have broader economic implications, particularly in a gas-restricted market where prices are already high and infrastructure (like gas pipelines) is under strain.
⚠️ Key Finding #3: A Grid Without Renewables Isn’t Just More Expensive – It’s Riskier
The CEIG report also highlights the growing reliability risk of continuing to depend on ageing coal and gas plants. Most of Australia’s coal fleet was built in the 1970s and 1980s and is well past its prime.
Outages and maintenance issues are increasing, and without new renewable infrastructure to replace them, the likelihood of blackouts and system failures grows significantly.
In fact, the report found that in all scenarios without renewables, the reliability standard would be breached, meaning the grid would no longer be able to guarantee electricity supply during peak times.
📈 Key Finding #4: Total Energy System Costs Would Explode
When fossil fuels set the price more often, as they do in a low-renewables scenario, overall system costs increase dramatically.
The report notes that:
- Fuel and variable operating costs would nearly double
- Emissions costs would rise by $3 billion, based on Australian Energy Regulator benchmarks
These are costs that eventually get passed on to consumers and businesses, either through higher power bills, carbon-related charges, or lost economic productivity.
So what’s the answer?
This CEIG report makes one thing crystal clear: we can’t afford to stall the transition to renewables. Doing so would mean higher bills, weaker energy security, and a heavier burden on families and industry alike.
Globally, this is already the direction of travel. In 2023 alone, over 91% of new power generation capacity added worldwide came from solar and wind. Australia’s transition is not only necessary, it’s part of a global shift toward smarter, cheaper, cleaner energy systems.
About CEIG:
The Clean Energy Investor Group (CEIG) represents domestic and international investors with over 16GW of installed renewable capacity, a portfolio value of $38 billion, and more than 46GW in the project pipeline across Australia. CEIG advocates for investor confidence and a smooth transition to a low-emission energy future.
